CLSA: n Russell Napier, QE2's and his Outlook on the inflation-deflation

Scottish economic historian of the S & p target price to 400?  Be still, beating hearts!

CLSA: "Russell Napier is my new favorite to take the listener to his interview with Jim Puplava financial sense.
He believes that the QE2 is reigniting credit growth of-at least here in the United States.  But now we export our inflation in emerging markets creditors.  So if the United States to take the policy of "qe Infinite" can be significant pushback.

(In 100% of his take to agree "in the Old West deflation (US, Europe and Japan), emerging markets in Asia and the inflation of" we are in the drawing that today).

Also, I appreciate his take Us by the Ministry of finance and the stock markets are both relatively overvalued the measure, which to a large extent the Fed QE events.  I've been arguing that we are still in the internal market and of our earthly Bear should be fine, not forgetting US stocks until they are sporting P/E: n 8 and 5-6%.

Napier attended the Singapore dollar as a possible "new Swiss franc", such as the Singaporeans have been allowing the currency to combat rising inflation, in the light of the above, the import from the West, forced.

Finally, he thinks, the world's environment, the depression could slump, although the deflationary environments yields rise at the same time (la 1931).  The biggest pain to everyone!

Again, here is the link to the full interview.

Hat Tip to send this along JL!

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What is really happening in Iraq and why it matters to investors

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Soldiering on: Why Our Military Adventures Matter to InvestorsRecently, I read a book titled The Good Soldiers that also serves as an object lesson in the disconnect between what’s going on in Washington D.C. and reality. It was written by David Finkel, a Pulitzer-winning author, and it came to me via a friend who is going through a stage where she feels drawn to books about war, mostly about World War II. Showing flexibility, her interest has expanded to the ongoing conflict in Iraq – the theater of operations that serves as backdrop for The Good Soldiers.Despite it going solidly against my literary preferences, I dragged the book along during a quick trip to Florida – a spur-of-the-moment thing to attend a golf school (I figured it was either that or get thrown off the local course for energetic exclamations of elaborate expletives resulting from my golf shots constantly flying off in unexpected and unwelcomed directions). Out of courtesy if nothing else, I figured I’d read a few pages of the book before putting it down – and so was surprised when it sucked me in, and kept me in, pretty much until I was finished.The background story is that the author of the book traveled to Iraq with a battalion of U.S. soldiers sent as part of the “surge,” then lived with them for the 14 months of their deployment. As far as I can tell, he approached his topic with no overt political intentions – rather, he just wanted to document the war as experienced by a battalion operating from a small base in one of the worst corners of Baghdad.As one might expect, as they departed from the United States for Baghdad, the soldiers and their brigade commander, Col. Ralph Kauzlarich, were full of fight, patriotism, and the confidence that only a chosen people can possess. It was, in their view, a just war and they deeply believed that in no time at all they'd use their superior war-making capabilities – supported by the sure knowledge that they held the moral high ground – to clean the bad guys out of Dodge and get the whole mess straightened out pronto.Reality, however, turned out to be significantly different, starting with the fact that rather than being welcoming, the population was overtly hostile – so much so that almost every time the soldiers drove off the base (which was part of the daily routine), the locals would try to maim and kill them. And they had considerable success at it.In addition to trying to kill them, the community’s leaders seemed uninterested in the outreach efforts the colonel was instructed to make, including an initiative to rebuild the sewers and fix the power and water delivery systems in the area around his command. Of course, it didn’t help that it was the blunt-force approach used by the U.S. military in capturing Baghdad that destroyed so much of the infrastructure in the first place. Regardless, all attempts at doing “good works” were stalled and disappointed at every turn, with billions of dollars wasted in the process.As the book progresses, the author juxtaposes President Bush's and General Petraeus' rosy comments about how well the surge is working with the on-the-ground realities. And those realities are presented as raw and graphic as they are – with the tops of soldiers’ heads being taken off by IEDs, or burning to death in Humvees while friends watch helplessly.So successful was the military and political leadership in convincing Congress and the media that the surge was a winning strategy that, to this day, its acceptance as a fact has become a meme throughout the body politic. Back on the ground in Iraq, however, the daily grinding down of the front-line forces continues apace.During the period of time covered in The Good Soldiers, the Iraqi insurgent attacks lightened up only slightly – but only because the ruling mullah in the battalion’s area of operation unilaterally called a cease-fire. The resulting dialing-back of attacks on U.S. forces was immediately pounced upon by the military leadership and the Bush administration as proof that the surge was working.That that wasn’t the case became clear the day the same mullah called off his cease-fire and hell opened up. One minute the area was relatively quiet – the next, the streets were filled with armed gunmen and snipers, and bombs were going off on what seemed like every corner.One of the more remarkable aspects of the war, an aspect that largely goes unreported, was just how sophisticated the Iraqi opposition became in their attacks against the occupying forces. Not only did their roadside bombs become murderously powerful – so powerful that they could almost evaporate a fully armored Humvee – but the Iraqis began attacking the U.S. bases using everything from mortars to rockets and even homemade missiles.The lob bomb, for example, was created out of propane tanks, filled with ball bearings and shrapnel, with a triggering device welded to the nose, and a rocket on the rear. In one instance, two large dump trucks drove near the base; after tilting up their backs to drop their loads, they revealed rails which were then used to guide a barrage of lob bombs, resulting in millions of dollars of damage to the American base.By the end of the battalion’s stay, the soldiers were mentally and, in many cases, physically ruined. One chapter near the end of the book, which recounted Col. Kauzlarich’s visits to some of his wounded soldiers back in the States – soldiers who suffered truly catastrophic injuries – I had to skip after just a couple of pages. It was just too painful to read.There are a number of important lessons that can be derived from The Good Soldiers, including:The on-the-ground commanders and soldiers being sent into places like Iraq and Afghanistan have only the best of intentions. Though their reasons for joining up may vary, as they head off for war, most believe their leaders wouldn’t deploy them unless there was good reason to do so. Thus when it becomes clear to them just how ill-used they have been – that they have lost friends and limbs for no discernable purpose – it creates a deep sense of disillusionment. The odds of another Timothy McVeigh emerging from the crowd of returning vets are very high.
Despite the U.S. government spending tens of millions of dollars a day in Iraq – with the total spent now approaching $1 trillion – the mission has accomplished nothing other than antagonizing the Iraqis whose doors the U.S. troops kick down regularly. When I say “accomplished nothing,” that is actually an overstatement. In fact, other than toppling Saddam, the outcome of the mission has been to create an everlasting antipathy between many Iraqis and the United States, blowing wind into the sails of the most radical elements of Iraqi society. What a mess.
The U.S. occupation has turned into a very effective laboratory for the insurgents. At the beginning of the conflict, the resistance fighters were relatively weak – but as time has gone by, the natural ability of humans to adapt and improvise has led to the development of an array of inexpensive but seriously lethal antipersonnel weaponry. That these technologies are now spreading throughout the region can be seen in the recent death of eight U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan, in a single blast.
Short of staging a scorched-earth form of warfare – turning these cities into parking lots – the U.S. cannot possibly ever win one of these conflicts. There is no fixed enemy that the U.S. can target with its superior weapons. And it’s unrealistic that the military can hunt down all of the opposition by going door to door.
The U.S. political and military leadership is straight out lying to its troops and to the public at large. It is hard to comprehend why, but I dare you to read The Good Soldiers and come away with any other conclusion. Maybe they continue the tragic farce because to cut and run – as we ultimately did in Vietnam – is just too embarrassing. Maybe it’s because they are so effectively lobbied by the war profiteers – may they eventually rot in the hottest corner of hell. Maybe it’s because they are allowed to wage war from a safe distance (no politicians visited the forward operating base where Kauzlarich and his battalion were based during their stay there, and Petraeus only made a single, quick stopover).

Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to bleed billions in these misguided wars, while the soldiers just bleed.

Someone, and probably a lot of people, should be held accountable for this travesty – as in being brought up on serious charges and, if found to have propagated lies resulting in the loss of lives and the wasting of hundreds of billions of dollars, sent to jail for a very, very long time. Or, better still, turned over to the Iraqis to punish. I’m sure they’d figure out something appropriately medieval.Given the urgency of addressing the U.S. debt and deficits, the bloated U.S. military budget is clearly the most obvious place to start making cuts that will actually matter. Yet Congress made no such cuts when passing the $690 billion budget requested by the Defense Department – doing so last week by an overwhelming margin.That budget includes another $119 billion to flush down the toilets of Iraq and Afghanistan. Showing that it has learned no lessons, the Obama administration – encouraged no doubt by new friends in the military-industrial complex – has already managed to spend $750 million in the undeclared war on Libya.There is a way to use this understanding that the bankrupt U.S. and its allies are doing little more than breaking furniture and making enemies in the Middle East to one’s advantage. Simply, unless and until the U.S. politicians muster enough spine to pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan and slash the military budget, the government’s massive budget deficits will continue.And if the budget deficits continue, then the trend for the U.S. dollar is sharply downward (though I remain convinced we’ll see a rally in the near term, a topic we’ll be tackling in greater detail in the upcoming edition of The Casey Report).That is not conjecture, but the unavoidable conclusion uncovered by a number of objective analyses done on past sovereign debt crises by folks such as Kenneth Rogoff and Casey’s Chief Economist Bud Conrad.To those readers who think that cutting the military budget, or pulling out wholesale from the Middle East, will increase threats to the continental United States, we will have to agree to disagree. In my view, destroying our economy to wage war – in the process squandering the huge commercial advantage of providing the world its reserve currency – is far more destabilizing. As is making yet more enemies by continuing to lob bombs and kick in doors here, there, and everywhere.Unfortunately, the U.S. leadership and, I guess, some significant swath of the voting public who supports that leadership are suffering from some sort of mass psychosis (or maybe it’s paranoia), that actually has them thinking that it is somehow in the country’s interest to continue flinging billions of dollars and the lives of its good soldiers into lost causes overseas.But don’t take my word on the topic – do yourself a favor and pick up a copy of The Good Soldiers today. As I can’t know where you stand on these wars, I can’t say whether or not reading the book will change your mind. But I can guarantee you that its on-the-ground perspective will enlighten you as to the true and disturbing nature of what’s really going on, and the futility of it all. It is anything but entertaining, but is very well written and very illuminating.Meanwhile, use the military budget as a proxy for the seriousness (or lack thereof) of the government’s intent to reduce its spending by any significant amount. And, absent any serious cuts in that spending, continue to take measures to protect yourself against wholesale debasement of the currency.Every month, David Galland and his co-editors – among them Doug Casey – of The Casey Report research and analyze significant events in the U.S. and global economy, as well as in politics and the markets. Their goal is to recognize the trends in the making that will directly or indirectly affect investors… and to provide the best profit opportunities, even in a time of crisis. Learn how you can outpace rampant inflation by crisis-investing like the pros in this free report.Ed. note: I am a Casey Report subscriber and affiliate.

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2011, the demand for gold in China Overtakes developed West (together!)

Here are some charts of gold, which need to make their own jaw-drop in the people's Republic of China.  Frank Holmes, writing a courtesy of: Kitco.com

The World Gold Council (WGC) released its "Gold demand, the development of the" quarterly report last week, and as always, it was full of fascinating information on the strength of gold on the world market. Gold demand increased by 11% 981.3 tonnes in 2011, 43.7 billion dollar worth at the end of the quarter in the first quarter.

This is not a completely new phenomenon in China. In the years 2007-2010 investment demand rose by 68% compounded annual growth rate of CPM units. The company predicted to increase the demand for investment in China to 34,7% in 2011, but this new data on it may need to change its forecast.

Song Qing, the Shanghai-based Lion fund management, the Director told Bloomberg News that "gold has taken a new role in China's concern about inflation … keskelläVain imagine the total wealth of the people's Republic of China, and even a small percentage of the purchase of gold by selecting. This demand will be huge. "

The full article: Asian Tiger teeth into Gold tubes

And this chart says it all:
Scratching my head, was accompanied by a friend of mine here in the United States, Wondering who was buying all the heck that gold the past during startup.  Then went to the Asia and saw eye-to-West is no longer driving these markets.  And this chart really says it all.

The interesting thing I've learned that the same phenomenon occurred even more dramatic extent-rare, with the China collectibles.  A friend of my wife's father is a very wealthy business man in Taiwan.  He has collected rare items in the system of the people's Republic of China in the last 20-30 years.  Now, when he is gone, he begins to sell off some of his collection and is so astounding time women he pays for the items (100 x-1000x, in some cases).

Now that the Chinese are beating the new millionaires and billionaires, including rare historical items in the balance of the system is due to the dramatic increase in prices.  And the same will happens to gold, which is the middle class can play itself to the trend.

When all of the type to buy what they help to save their wealth as the Renminbi?  Vis-à-vis the US dollar?  Eur?

This trend should be kept, I guess, as long as real interest rates are near zero, or negative, there (in theory, the real prices are approximately 1% today, if you think inflation is really running 5%).

Hat Tip to the TIP of the drugs on a daily basis in this link.

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3 to protect the investments of the portfolio of inflation

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Whether you think we'll see inflation or deflation in the short term, even the most ardent deflationists will admit that inflation is likely, eventually, once the bad credit outstanding has retired to money heaven.

So when inflation does return - whether it's next year, or longer, what are the best ways to shelter cold hard cash?  Inflation expert Terry Coxon explores here (fellow Harry Browne fans will recognize Terry's name - they did a lot of work together).  Coxon's Open Opportunity IRA is an especially attractive idea, for those of us who want more flexibility from our retirement plans (and/or are worried that the government may eventually try to lock them up in "Patriot bonds"!)

3 Ways to Shelter Your Cash from Inflation

By Terry Coxon, The Casey Report

The high rate of inflation most of us believe is waiting not too far down the road will be an earthquake for investment markets. The likely winners (gold, silver, precious metals stocks) and the likely losers (long-term bonds and most stocks) aren’t too hard to identify. But separating the sheep from the goats is only one element for financial success in an environment of rapidly rising consumer prices.

Higher rates of price inflation will bring greater volatility to all financial markets. The higher you expect inflation and hence gold to go, the more volatility you should expect to see for assets of every type. Even if in fact the dollar is on the road to perdition, there will be detours and backtracking along the way.

Inflation doesn't operate smoothly; it is a disrupter for both the economy and for the political system. From time to time over the next five to ten years, the Federal Reserve will come to see inflation as its most urgent problem. And every time that happens, the Fed will slow the creation of fresh dollars or even put up a big INTERMISSION sign and stop printing altogether for a while.

Such seizures of monetary virtue won’t last long, but while they do last, they will hammer most investment markets, including the market for the yellow stuff and for stocks of companies that produce or look for it. You could be absolutely correct about where the dollar is headed in the long run and still have a scary ride.

2008 was just a preview of the downdrafts you will need to survive. There will be even uglier smash-ups, and you don’t want to be among the hard-money investors who get carried off on a stretcher. To avoid being one of them, you’ll need to include cash as a constant, permanent element of your portfolio. Cash is a courage booster. Having a substantial cash reserve makes it easier to hold on to your other investments when they are getting battered and you are tempted to bail out. And cash gives you the wherewithal to buy on dips – and on the big dumps.

Of course, cash will be the asset whose value is shrinking. But the rate at which the purchasing power of your cash declines will depend very much on how you hold it.

Interest rates on money market instruments, such as Treasury bills and large CDs, track the rate of inflation fairly closely. By creating money fast enough, the Federal Reserve can keep rates on money market instruments one or two percentage points below the inflation rate, but not indefinitely. And any such effort to suppress short-term interest rates succeeds at the cost of producing even higher inflation later. Similarly, the Fed can keep money market rates one or two points above the inflation rate for a while, with the likely eventual result of a slowing in inflation. But over long periods, the average yield on money market instruments about matches the average rate of inflation.

Given that money market yields travel the same path as inflation rates, holding cash doesn’t seem to be terribly painful. The loss in purchasing power about gets made up for by the yield. That’s a nice thought – until you think about taxes. Even though the yield is merely replacing the purchasing power being lost, the yield is subject to income tax, unless you do something about it.

Doing nothing about it is, in a subtle way, risky for your portfolio. When price inflation gets to, say, 10% and money market yields are near the same level, if you are in a 40% tax bracket, you’ll be losing purchasing power on your cash at a rate of 4% per year. The situation will get worse as inflation moves higher, and you’ll be tempted to cut back on cash in order to cut back on the leakage. And that will leave you dangerously ill-prepared for the next INTERMISSION sign.

Logically, then, to make holding cash cheap or even free, you need to hold the cash in an environment where the yield is protected from taxes. Let’s look at the possibilities, some of which, you should be warned, may make you say “Yuk.”

A straight annuity is a contract with an insurance company that pays you a certain amount per year for the rest of your life. A deferred annuity begins with an accumulation period, during which the contract earns interest or some other investment return. You can end the accumulation period whenever you want and then either start receiving a lifetime of payments or simply withdraw the contract's accumulated value.

Earnings in a deferred annuity are tax-deferred until they are withdrawn. So if the return on a deferred annuity tracks money market yields, then the real value of the annuity will hold approximately steady, even at high rates of inflation.

Deferred annuities are now an almost forgotten topic. They were, for the first time ever, a very big topic in the high-inflation years of the 1970s and 1980s. The reason was simple – sky-high interest rates. But in more recent experience, interest rates have been so low that the advantage of tax-deferred compounding has hardly been worth the trouble. It's when interest rates are high that tax-deferred compounding brings a big payoff.

When price inflation heats up and puts money market rates on a boil, expect to see ads for deferred annuities on every financial street corner. The right annuity contract will certainly be better than leaving cash in a bank account, but it still won't be the most attractive medium for holding cash through a period of rapid inflation. There are one, or perhaps two, limitations on an annuity's appeal.

The first is that the protection from being taxed on a fictitious return only goes so far. Even though the money inside the annuity may be holding its purchasing power (with interest continuously replacing what is being lost to inflation), eventually you'll cash the annuity in. At that point, all the interest will be taxable. After, say, a decade of high inflation, most of what comes out of the annuity will be accumulated interest – which will be taxable as ordinary income. So you'd have a one-time loss of nearly 40% of your purchasing power, assuming you're in a 40% tax bracket. (I know that sounds awful, but it would be a far better result than paying tax on interest income year by year during a decade of rapid inflation.)

The second limitation is that, so far as I have been able to determine, no insurance company offers a program that would let you switch the value of an annuity between money investments and something related to precious metals. That may change as inflation and the public's interest in gold picks up. But until it does, there would be no tax-efficient way to tap the purchasing power your annuity had been protecting to buy something gold-related during the downdrafts we're trying to prepare for.

As with a deferred annuity, the earnings on a cash value life insurance policy can accumulate and compound free of current tax. But that’s where the similarity ends.

Unlike the earnings on a deferred annuity, the earnings on cash value life insurance can come out of the policy tax free. The tidiest way is for you to die at just the moment that is most convenient for your financial plan. An alternative, if you don’t have such an accommodating attitude, is to borrow the earnings from the policy. You can do so tax free if the policy satisfies the “7-pay” rule: pay for the  policy no more rapidly than with seven equal annual premiums.

Being able to borrow from the policy tax free would allow you to tap its value whenever gold and other hard investments have had a sizeable setback. Convenient. But, depending on your circumstances, that convenience may or may not be available to you for free.

Between the Internal Revenue Code's requirements for a contract to qualify as “life insurance” and the perversely characterized “consumer protection” rules of the various states, it is not possible to buy a life insurance policy in the U.S. that does not have a face value far above the amount you’ve invested in the policy. The difference represents the insurance company’s risk – mortality risk – that you may stop breathing ahead of schedule. The insurance company, of course, will charge for that risk. There are a lot of variables, but think of the charge as amounting to something on the order of 1% per year of the capital you want to wrap inside the policy to protect the return from taxes.

Whether a cash value insurance policy (a 7-pay policy, so that you can borrow tax free) is a good place to shelter cash from the winds of inflation depends in large part on whether paying for mortality risk is or is not a wasted cost for you. If you now have a reason to own term life insurance, you are paying purely for mortality risk. In that case, it would make sense for you to convert to a cash value policy that could be invested in money market instruments as a way to prepare for high inflation. There wouldn’t be any additional mortality cost, and you would get the tax advantages of life insurance.

On the other hand, if you have no use for pure life insurance coverage, using a cash value policy for its tax advantages would require you to become a regular bettor in the actuarial casino, which you probably would not want to do.

If it is available to you, by far the best way to hold cash through an inflationary storm is in an Individual Retirement Account. Without any of the costs that come with a deferred annuity or a life insurance policy, you can invest in T-bills, insured jumbo CDs and other money market instruments and in near-cash assets such as very short-term bonds. You can have a free hand to tap the cash at opportune times to purchase precious metals and precious metal stocks. The whole arrangement is protected from current taxes, and with a Roth IRA the proceeds eventually can come out tax free.

You can do exactly the same with a solo 401(k) plan. And if you have a 401(k) plan that's sponsored by your employer, you may be able to do about the same, depending on the investment options the plan allows.

A retirement plan would be the ideal vehicle, but there is a size constraint. While the size of a deferred annuity or of a cash value life insurance policy is limited only by the size of your checkbook, IRAs are not so easily scalable. However, if you have a traditional IRA and would like to move a chunk of non-IRA money into it, there is a way to effectively do so.

Take a close look at your traditional IRA. How much of it is building tax-deferred wealth foryou? Less than meets the eye.

If you are in, say, a 40% tax bracket, then no matter how large your IRA gets to be, when it comes time to take a distribution, 40% will go to the government. Your ability to postpone that event won't change the nature of it. In effect, the government now owns 40% of your IRA, and you own only 60%. If there is, for the sake of round numbers, $100,000 in your IRA, only $60,000 is working for you.

Fortunately, there is a way to buy out the government's share. It's a Roth conversion. You pay the tax now, so that eventually your withdrawals will be tax free. The result: the assets you own directly decline by $40,000 (the money you spend to pay the tax bill on the conversion); and the amount in the IRA that is working exclusively for you increases by $40,000.

That's a big improvement, because the net effect is to move capital out of a tax-paying environment and into a tax-free environment where all of the earnings get reinvested. To continue the example, the effective size of your IRA increases by two-thirds ($40,000/$60,000). That's two-thirds more money doing the happy work of tax-free compounding for your benefit.

You can do the same with a solo 401(k) – effectively plump it up through a Roth conversion.

The financial logic of a Roth conversion is compelling. The case is even stronger if you first restructure your IRA as an Open Opportunity IRA. The Open Opportunity structure starts out as a big idea – radically greater investment freedom – and then gets bigger.

Instead of being restricted to the menu of investments allowed by your existing IRA custodian, your IRA would own a single asset – a limited liability company that you manage. Then you would roll over the investments from your existing IRA into the new IRA and then into the LLC. As Manager of the LLC, you would have the choice of keeping the existing investments or switching to real estate, gold coins, equipment leasing or almost anything else.

That's the investment freedom. In addition, by designing the LLC appropriately, significant savings on the cost of your Roth conversion may be possible..

You can learn more about the Open Opportunity IRA in "The Year of the Roth," in the June 2010 edition of The Casey Report.

Deferred annuities, cash value life insurance and retirement plans – these are the ready vehicles for protecting the purchasing power of the cash you need for portfolio safety during times of rapid inflation. They do the job by reinvesting money market yields, which tend strongly to track inflation rates, without loss to current tax.

Of course, the three alternatives aren't exclusive; you can use more than one. Which of them would be best for you depends not just on their characteristics but on your individual circumstances. Now, before CPI inflation starts making double-digit headlines, is a good time to start weighing your choices. Even if you don't like any of the choices, any of them will be better than letting your cash rot.

Contributing Editor Terry Coxon is president of Passport Financial, Inc., and for over 30 years has advised clients on legal ways to internationalize their assets to optimize tax, wealth protection and estate planning goals.

[For a very limited time, you can now profit from the investment advice of both the Casey Research team and 35 big-name experts… like ShadowStats’ John Williams, James G. Rickards, Chris Whalen, Mike Maloney and many others. Get your Double-Dip Crisis Bundle today – for one low price. More info here.]

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With the winding-down QE2 which ' Flation rule date?

At the end of the reported or at least, to stop the QE is exactly what the deflation camp has been waiting for.  (Well ... sort of.  Because some of the ample liquidity is going to the hanging, "QE2". 5 "format.  "Remember when Bernanke claimed that, after the Fed would eliminate an additional QE1, liquidity from the system?)Regardless of the results of the June, the Treasury is a cool billion to $ 100 plus Finance on a monthly basis, without the assistance of the Fed, at least for now.  And emerging markets and options contracts for crude oil contracts, the home of the newly printed money to be not nearly 100 billion dollars a month.  This will start the return of the nation in 2008, deflation?

In the first place, is expected to see what we * think * we know.  Ben Bernanke became the Felix Zulauf, such as the history of the first Central banker to actually say that he wants to go up stock quotes.  And he made a stock!

Food prices and Energy prices ... and. .. With the other stock markets, etc.  We have a lot of inflation in the United States of nShny here, because as I learned last month while traveling in Asia, inflation has been America's leading export last year!

Industrializing Asia increasing, countries which boast of more favorable as a whole, and inflationary pressures, as we have the Western countries (especially in Europe and the United States) has been taking Bernanke n brunt QE.  Here in the United States, we have been getting squeezed higher food and Energy prices, but the service is based on prices and wages, has largely stopped, as does the pricing power.

Looking beyond the next five to 10 years are the fundamental reasons why Asia should continue to grow and why food and energy prices should continue to increase.  There is also the fundamental reasons why Europe and the United States is likely to slow the growth of the economies, at best, and why they attract some of the aging population and the natural deflationary environments headwinds, their economies (such as Japan post-1990).

Wild card is of course the money printing.  Bernanke made sure me and other deflationists, find the stupid in the past 24 months.  Correct, the game was to buy traditional inflation hedges such as gold, commodities and money-printing on the Launcher.

And in the next five to 10 years, I think it is very likely that we will see more turns of the QE.  The atmosphere is now against the Fed continue to print, but when things are likely to roll over again, they should be enough to support the patenting of printing-presses.

QE2, for me, it was crazy.  It should have been in the past, the first of the QE2, glaring red flag, all of which were the tilt.  The world was ending.  But the 20% drop in stocks on the God of fear the Fed that if they are not to "do something", as the case may be, upon the economic rapture should.

History shows this rhyming.  Andrew Dickson White in excellent Fiat money inflation (hat Tip to Dr. Evil rec) in France, the profiles of the traditional political roadmap for the French hyperinflaation the late 1790 's.  They will be printed once and it seemed a little better for the economy.  They stopped and things turned down.

Thus, they printed a second time.  And things went a little better, but not as much as for the first time.  Gee, who knew of the funding was like heroin!

But now, the French Government was on the hook, they will be printed in the til-Jim Rogers, I would say, they ran out of the trees.

I do not know, for example, the Government printing money for children's historical literature disseminated throughout Europe, and then stop.  It is the abuse, which is very difficult to break.  So in the long term to continue printing money seems to be the most likely attack scenario.

But what about in the short term?  We are very much in the second bout could not get deflation.  And commodities and stocks of 2 + years of one way to carry out on-the-sky winded into, this may be the best time to take in order to take account of inflation hedges, pile.

NET-net, we are lucky, investment, that we do not need to be performed on each trade.  I like Jim Rogers take agriculture best.  Over the course of the next 10 years, it has an ascending fundamentals.  The prices will continue until a new supply line and that takes time.

Continuous printing of money to the world, unfortunately, but fortunately we can Add some of the investors, the ag is extremely sensitive to fuel price increases in grain.

Summary of inflation or deflation?,  It depends on, and really, it does not matter either.  In the medium and long term, the food and energy prices will continue until a new supply line.  Emerging and growth of the market is facing inflation, while in Japan, Europe, and the United States is likely to see the Dichotomy that deflation, inflation.  Until and unless we see a "qe Infinite" is Marc Faber is a pleasant message.

Regardless of how this all plays agricultural displays most of the day, the wager in question was me on board sound card.

Related reading: our exclusive interview with Jim Rogers in Singapore-commodities-China

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Could oil hit $ 80 on the US economy?

artist (s): William Davies
(UK)

Global economic growth, the collapse of the prices of crude oil and/or petroleum products (NYME_CL) have decreased dramatically in July 2008 the heady heights.

But now some of the crude oil market is an alert with a positive signal to the observers, which could mean higher crude prices.

This is significant, because, according to the INO.com, Adam Hewison is around 18 months, that the legal position, Buy signal showing the energy market for the first time.

Even if the current $45-an increase in the price of crude oil around the character would be very welcome news producers, such as OPEC, the key question is how such a move would have a marked influence on the weak Us economy.

Saudi Arabia has said more than once that it would like to see oil or more than EUR 70, or, as the current low prices are hitting quite difficult in the Gulf States.

Still quite a lot throughout the entire world economy is struggling to Show positive changes in the present growth in some emerging markets such as China, while posting a positive one, the number of the GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) growth.

So if oil moves higher prices could increase in the amount of the US economy to cope with its current state? Find out below:

America is still heavily dependent on commodities, and yet the basic regulation, the terms and conditions set forth in this limited control of the production and distribution.

Taking into account that the large oil reserves have potentially volatile areas of the energy problem is very serious and makes Us vulnerable.

His own page just a small link in the supply chain, also for a short period of time could lead to the development of the crude oil market dynamics of large and relatively easy to surge back into the oil, $ $ 70-80 barrel range at the time.

Check out the video below If Adam will be reviewed in the light of the reference value on crude oil prices in the zones for the following 12 months, or through it.

Enjoy.

William Davies.

http://crudeoilbounce.commoditycrunch.com

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Video of the diversification of the commodity futures trading

According to Marianna Gomes
(Buenos Aires)

Not just watched an excellent video, showing the benefit of the diversification of their commodity futures trading, market Club s trade triangle technology.

This video showed me clearly to the benefit of having a one-color command in the game plan (or a trading plan) as the very flat trading and similar maps that to a diverse portfolio of commodity futures, combined with very impressive results to give.

Equally important is much reduced, revealing the diversification of the capital, and in this case, we saw impressive results in the 6 quarters, according to market Club trading in range of assets.

The video you can see how trading the selected for their historical record of strong and long term trends and Trade Triangle technology, using a particular conditions, it is possible to obtain very good results.

The selected conditions were corn (CBOT_C), wheat (CBOT_W), soybeans (CBOT_ZS), crude oil (NYMEX_CL), gold (XAUUSDO), and finally the dollar index (NYBOT_DX).

I was very impressed by how the video clearly demonstrates the adoption of this technology, either to go long the Clear signals (buy) or to go to short (sell), depending on the direction and color of the triangle.

Green triangle pointing up indicates the Buy signal, even if the downward pointing red triangle to sell signal.

Key in this technology is, how you can combine the weekly and daily signals. The weekly triangle allows you to provide your own development and the scheduling of the triangle are used to trade daily.

All I can say is that the entire group of mainly agricultural commodities, diversification of the results is very impressive and market Club approach allows you to filter your online stores, to stand back and wait until the right opportunity.

It also reduces the risk of a comprehensive approach to help you.

As we shall try to explain the still only sit back and enjoy the words, the video below.

All good

Marianna Gomes
commodity trading today, on behalf of the

http://diversifytradingvideo.commoditycrunch.com

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CRB index predicts the inflation that the deflation?

By David Phillips
(Commodity trading today)

CRB index or indicator has been set up in 1957 and displays each of the developments closely predicted deflation and inflation since the test cycles.

To use Adam Hewison CRB index large INO.com Cyclic development his main lead as an indicator. If you are thinking of investing in commodities or commodity-related stocks, an index, you may want to consider this very carefully.

The data back to look at how over the last half-century, the CRB index has shown some significant moves as well as the upside, and recently has been slower.

I agree with Adam, that this is likely to be an indicator that the operators should keep an eye on.

If someone, being in stocks or the commodity futures and business users to better understand the evolution of world trade, this is the view from the aircraft.

This index is the tenth amendment, it was named after the Reuters Jefferies CRB index-(NYBOT_CR).

Now you can very easily use this indicator to keep track of the daily Market at the Club and for further information on this commodity index market Trader of the Club s-blog.

I have moved the 19 markets, which includes the RJ/CRB index in 2005 in order to give effect to the amendment to the list:

Metals: aluminium, copper, gold, nickel, silver

Energy Sources: Heating oil, natural gas, crude oil, unleaded gas

Grains: maize, soya, wheat

Food and Fiber: of cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar

Livestock: Lean hogs, pigs and cattle

Take a few minutes to Watch this short video below and see how you can benefit from this indicator.

No cancellation fee and is not a registration.

Each of the success of your training
David

http://crbindex.commoditycrunch.com

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Relative strength index, raw material trading technology

RSI (relative strength Index)-index of turnover of power in the technical indicator, Welles Wilder, of the raw materials used by trading.

With most of the indicators on the daily chart's RSI is working in conjunction with other measurements to improve the performance of a traded commodity, the price of the Fund, or ETF-for example, the interpretation of the operation.

How does this indicator to achieve this end result?

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Relative strength indicator to help combat the shortcomings of the understanding of the business of the two.

These are continuous, flat ribbon, which is used to price changes and the means to compare the need for equalization in the header, and the fixing of prices.

For example, if the volatile, sharp was up or down, then Move to say (7 days, as well as the amount of the line of business, for example) a week, this may be the reason for the large number of the line shifts in business even though today s prices are relatively flat.

This can lead to give the wrong signal to the price action. It could be that different assets can be different levels for the time being oversold or overbought.

How do you do about the mind?

This is where the daily chart's RSI is too much movement, helps to create a steady constant region of the snap from 0 to 100.

What is the formula to RSI?

RSI = 100 [100/(1 + RS)]

If RS = the days which are Close to these days, closing higher for the lower is the average time interval.

Imagine a graph, where the vertical scale is 0 to 100.

Typically, the asset would be maintained at levels of approximately 70% of the over-bought and levels of the oversold, respectively, of the approximately 30% mark.

For example, if the price action goes below 30%, it is to say, these raw materials oversold.

In looking to the summer of 2008, many commentators are likely to accept, for example, that the crude oil is about $ 147 was overbought and that having fallen to about $ 90 had reached oversold levels.

The letter must be used in relative Power index every 14 days, but may be useful to experiment with different intervals.

Searches for the supplier of the raw materials that, in this clearly signals is descending (belonging to) or a (ascending) bullish trend occurs by using this technology to trading.

Other trading tools and techniques to complement the daily chart's RSI is floating in the use of the support and strength are, Japanese candle feet, moving average and the Fibonacci levels.

The important thing is to remember, raw material, the relative strength of the trade is to use an index with the help of other measures, when the price activity and try to decide whether to stay or enter the market.

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Return to trading on a regulated market, the relative strength index asset today

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Where you can place on your own to stop the sale of the asset (hint: the article number below to view the manifest support)

This is a classic example of why it is recommended that you keep your own stops below the obvious levels and the market, too.

Our rice trade is moved out of the advent (we bought rice prices in the two year-breakout February 1st-for this reason).

After the original continuous Run higher lucky broke rice.  Although the move was said by my higher levels, the market fell faster than I have been and I have a strong sense of 12.50 aid level (and stop the logical location).

Experienced traders say should never allow you to stop the market-but keep your head instead of, or in a spreadsheet, or from a program, not attached to the proxy account.  Well, here is an excellent example of why they say that:

Source: Barchart.com (click to enlarge) the number of weak hands were driven to this trade, when the powers that would not have sent rice "limit down" 3 days in a row-a little less than EUR 12.50, where most of the longs had certainly they may stop?I do not know how this might be to trade a pan here-it will be a loser again-but I found this is a classic case study of why: 1) to market their own do not place the stop and 2) why you have a set of stops below the levels, all the rest of the obvious.Now might be taken in the light of the Jim Rogers approach to the development of the näppylöiden to buy ingredients rather than or near-especially software support levels to the key.  We keep an eye on this entry strategy, in particular in relation to the grain and ml.Even if the "Last day" (cerca 2005-08), purchases will be paid to the development of profitable transaction näppylöiden strategy for me in these markets.

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Dalian commodity Exchange, the market for emerging agricultural futures

Opened in February 1993, the Dalian commodity Exchange is one of the four, the Futures Exchange in China and is now the largest agricultural commodities trading centre in the country.

Independent, non profit, commodity stock Dalian fifteen years built a strong brand and reputation of a reliable market price discovery and risk management.

Despite the recent slowdown in the long term trend of strong growth and expansion of China's economy If the demand for agricultural products continued to grow strongly. Get the free INO trading alerts when you subscribe to the free newsletter of the asset in this Universe. Fill out the simple form below. Is as easy as 1-2-3!

A positive background, the Dalian commodity Exchange is to ride the wave of this cleverly and become established in the major agricultural futures trading centre in the far East.

The world economy refers to the significantly higher population in the coming decades, population pressure, the development of the agricultural and livestock are enormous, and those who are able to understand them.

Dalian commodity Exchange is requesting, in its opinion, orientating themselves in three ways, namely, towards the world market, and in the future.

This general view of Dalian is one of the goal to become a fully functioning on the market, which contributes to a substantial and significant economic development in China.

It sees itself as a leading world-wide, so that using your own benchmark for pricing and offering very high quality service.

This ambitious commodity futures exchange sees itself in order to achieve the general objective of the two fundamental objectives.

First of all, that the root of agricultural raw materials Futures Exchange a futures contracts, there will be an increase in the size of the area that is available.

The change has been applied successfully is to grow from the regional exchange of agriculture, the main national and international, in whole or in part, the Futures Exchange.

Dalian commodity Exchange is the world's second-largest corn-CBOT Futures Exchange after so this gives a measure at the time of this organization are ambitious.

Want to be competitive while Dalian in Shanghai Futures Exchange and Zhengzhou commodity Exchange, it is a great effort on the part of the World Trade there with stock exchanges such as the NYMEX, ice and CME.

It is already a member of the US Futures Industry Association and UK Futures and options Association.

Cooperation agreements have been signed by more than 10 overseas trade exchanges to develop new markets and share information.

At the same time, when it is put in the efforts of non-agricultural products, and have an influential global materials trading centre, it has already built a solid basis for agricultural commodities and to offer this experience to others going forward.

Basic agricultural products trade Dalian commodity Exchange include:

It is undoubtedly that of the Exchange shall be examined within the framework of the new products available in the extension of trading futures.

After receiving the credit and the deficiencies of the global financial system, the architecture of the shock the world economy, commodities seem to be the only untied fixed asset class available to traders and investors with appropriate access to information.

Because of the impact of agricultural enterprises, as well as other economic de-leveraging, many farmers are facing difficult to get funding to replace the old equipment or materials of the basic regulation, such as seeds and fertilizers.

The dynamics of point still a long-term shortage of agricultural and other commodities and the continuous demand, so the likelihood of demand and supply balance is under pressure and should be the development of the commodity futures as prices will move forward.

Against this background, the pressure of the supply of foodstuffs and expanding the world's population, and the prospects look encouraging, in particular the asset Exchange, Dalian, and other emerging agricultural exchange in General.

Dalian commodity Exchange trade on stock exchanges

Return to the commodity trading today

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Trading of crude oil in the short and long term

Commodity trading today, the blog offers news and articles in the commodities world markets.

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The result of the continued strong development, crude oil futures in New York City, has started a $ 81 een over.

Light, sweet crude futures rose 23 cents to $ 81.42, while the ICE Brent, London moved to 24 cents higher than the Nymex to $ 79.75.

This is great for us, raw photos in 2009 and shows how the market is growing more confident with indications of economic recovery now apparent.

The most recent event was the ever stronger economic growth in China, still regarded as one of the world economy, the recession, the engine version information.

More encouraging financial results a significant US companies such as McDonald's and the heikkenevässä in the US dollar and commodity markets are inevitably going to the show.

The question is whether this is a blip and we see a slowdown could be in another, or whether it represents a sustainable recovery?

U.s. light sweet crude hit $ 79 een today, continuing its strong development collapsing US dollar, the growing Global economic recovery on the back of optimism and good results from us companies.

Crude oil price is now almost double its March 2009 low, breaking through the $ 79 before falling back later $ control 78.23 in New York. In the meantime, the London ICE Brent fell back to $ een 77.96.

These movements seem strange, United States of crude oil is still relatively large stocks of the strategic reserve.

We are likely to remain out, what happens? Some analysts take recent price, this strong growth is based on the optimism instead of solid elements, because the unused capacity and the refiners ' margins are low stocks of heating oil and diesel fuel in the case of a surplus.

Other commodities will also continue to move up strongly, copper surging 4% today, although the gold touches $ 1,061 Troy ounce, with many analysts predicting the yellow metal reached 2 000 euros before long.

Ballooning US deficits and growing toward the $ 12 trillion debt burden, the scenario is set much lower in the US dollar and the strengthening of the prices of raw materials, including crude oil, gold, metals, such as ml and copper industry.

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Global economic growth, the collapse of the prices of crude oil and/or petroleum products (NYME_CL) have decreased dramatically in July 2008 the heady heights. But now the

Permalink--click for the whole of the blog post "could hit $ 80 oil to the United States?"

When President Obama signed out of 787 billion dollar recovery package, the prices of crude oil in the economic, to weigh, which decreased by almost 7%,

Permalink--click for the whole of the blog post "the crude oil falls 7%, economic concerns."

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Permalink--click for the whole of the blog post "the CRB index predicts the inflation that the deflation?"

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China's concerns about the corn supply (and possible deficiencies)

Beijing remains concerned about the supply of maize, in particular, in the medium and long term, the South China Morning Post reports than China is becoming a big importer of maize-time:

"The Chinese net imports of corn could exceed 20 million tonnes in the three years," said Liu Xiaobo, a food industry analyst of Shanghai Everbright securities. "The largest part of the imports originating in the United States, which is expected to grow maize in the consumption domestic maize ethanol production and the same applies to the export of maize, the country such as Brazil, South America.

"So the Chinese can not be expected to always be able to buy enough maize (corn) from the international market," he said.

Institute of Cngrain.com to the Mainland, according to the information, as well as the need to import one million tons in 2010-11, down to 1,5 million tonnes the previous year. Corn consumption in is expected to increase to 8 million tonnes to 158.163 million tonnes, although the production of maize should grow 155.5 million tonnes to 165.8 million tonnes.

The full article here: corn supply remains a concern in Beijing

This provision does not leave much of the slack in the system.  When the net exporter to the importer countries to Change the status, which can be quite bullish for the specific commodity.  This has happened in the oil market over the past 15 years, more and more countries becoming net importers of goo.
Maize (corn), which traditionally is called up to July 4th rally, has ironically been tear roughly 4 July 2010!The supply situation, combined with the increasing demand of this 12-year-old commodity Bull market, and that the next theme, will be reviewed in the light of our asset investments as Patriarch of Constantinople,

, Jim Rogers, the words: "in the United States, the average farmer is 57 years old," Rogers divided (gives me yet another "how the heck he did not know that offhand?"at this time).

"Who is going to be holding 10 years from now?  These guys are 67 … if they are still around.  And no one has a degree with honors, Marissa received her b.s. in agriculture today. "

"Is not just enough for the farmers in the world.  Is by far the contributions from the empty parcels of land in Japan, believe it or not – no one is holding them. "

He thinks these commodities Bull market could continue to rock and roll for some time because of the "little or no supply has become the line yet."

Source: Live interview with Jim Rogers exclusive in Singapore

Much of the century in the United States is the only driver of conditions.  It is now, we have learned the company front.

Scale Note: there are a few ETFs that track the price of maize (corn), in part, is the most significant BUSINESS AS (DBA).
 

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the price of agricultural raw materials analysis

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How a silver stake Gold precious metal Bull Market Outperforms during the

Precious metal fans, take note of the silver can be gold n crazy cousin, but the inherent zaniness doesn't work on behalf of the user performing the lucky metal. ..

Why buy silver $ 30 The silver price has recovered 27% from the year of 28. January 16, a measly trading day a huge advance. It has already climbed high in the past, and the 2010 sold less than 16 $ currently last year, double the 12-month period. So is pricy? Or should we ignore the preparation for and buy?  I have read some of the articles that say We should drop the $25 level of silver and one for the development of the area was $ 22. Others, of course, see the bullish day on the leaves of the tea and the near keyword to believe, it is headed higher. Those who argue the silver is reduced, most believe it is a temporary, even if one of the author's claim, the precious metals Bull market is over (I think he is a holdout is a gold-bubble-camp).  These factors may be right about the long-term decline in the near, but I am less concerned with what price is this month or even more in the coming months and, if it is likely to result in the next few years. Warning: may cause tension in the face of the chart. Although a lot of reasons to be bullish on silver, what everyone wants to know is, how high the price may go. This is one of the tip, the historical basis of the price performance of strictly.Of the silver rose to an incredible $ 3,646.32% of all households were made up of 1 November 1971-small, its high for the January 21, 1980, to $ 49.45 (the London PM fix). Our current payment of the advance, 4. February through 596%. $ 30 for silver is the climb more than five times to respond to the last great bull market. If it did, the price hit 160.89 $ Ounce ($ 4.295 30 March 2001, the bottom). You'll also notice the silver outperforming Gold records are these two Bull market. Despite the drop to 26.9% in 2008 (although the price of gold gained 5%), the yellow metal has to outrun their cousin after each of the lowest in 2001 to 38.6%. Gold Advanced 2,333% in the 1970s; It is currently at 430%. If it was last run, the price hit $ 6,227.26 Ounces, the return of the four-and-half times today to buy gold.Exclusively from the perspective of historical price chart suggests, we are sure you have a long way to go with, as well as metals. The question is, if the aid of these prices (Show inflation threatens the healthy and the dollar, and we speak), but at the moment is, Puntos incumbent ignores these metals to climb much higher price. And just as important, they have one of the big picture of the eye.So yes, I have to buy the silver $ 30, in part because I think the enormous profits of the potential is high.I am, however, is that I am sucked into my account, you can make money. I think it is important that the precious metals investor may always be a game, but in the light of the low quality of most of the market and the volatility of the silver n account just now, we propose in the context of some of the powder dry as well.It is assumed that the one mentioned above is correct, and soothsayers in the silver falls temporarily EUR 25. If the level of the snag, your income would be 543 endgame% vs. 30% profit $ 436 (excluding fees and storage costs). It is more than one of the original investment of 100% profit. But how does one buy silver Detail, knowing if the price plummet or soar? For example, silver to take these levels never see $ 30 again, leaving them, sell off waiting for the market. Or it may sink $ 25, making investors who went, all now regret, they do not wait for a better price. Or it could trade sideways until next autumn, i.e., leaving both parties uncertain, and the industry.I think there is one word answer to the question. It solves all the difficulties – enabling it to keep you in the market, while at the same time, you can purchase a rental at a lower price, if that. It allows you to build your larger and bigger without the worry of whether you can get a good price.That one word is the verb, and they are. The financial planning community, or the popular, "the language of the 80s by the average cost of the dollar. In other words, Buy a little, buy slightly last month, etc., until you have a drive that is large enough to use in the context of the fight against inflation and the economy of pain we may encounter in the next few years.  So my advice, buy, hold, repeat. Because if we end up with the silver market, looking for something like that on the left of the bar chart, you will not regret it, have purchased the $ 30, too. [Otherwise, we have increased the market cap: n numbers, Pan American silver in our article last week … how is a small amendment to one of the largest silver producer as compared to other popular stock.][If we can buy silver and gold? For our recommended list of traders, which is the cheapest prices in the industry, we believe that with the silver stocks outperform the metal with the risk-free for you the BIG GOLD for only $ 79 per year. For more information about how the Editor Jeff Clark is boosted by his mother, the IRA and his subscribers to insurance database – and how he can do the same for you-click here.]Ed Note: I am Big. Gold Subscriber and affiliate.

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Fibonacci numbers, Fibonacci Trading, the use of the asset

Fibonacci use of raw materials trade helps Show the supplier market to find support and resistance.

Fibonacci or FIB-tool consists of a horizontal reference lines spaced at intervals determined by a mathematical formula, which are the subject of trade, the prices of the asset's continuing activity in the background.

When an asset's price movement of the clocks of the supplier, he looks for what is called the Fibonacci retracement.

Get the free INO trading alerts when you subscribe to the free newsletter of the asset in this Universe. Fill out the simple form below. Is as easy as 1-2-3!

Let s say the Soybean futures you are trading and the price is moving higher.

You are looking for, you can see whether the price action and resistance of the line retraces or whether it does so, back to the reference line of the via Fibonacci.

Commodity trading using Fibonacci means these levels provide a FIB-commodity traders, which is a fixed reference point, which gives a strong indication of future price changes, in particular commodity.

In most cases, professional traders expect an ejected FIB levels, and so often will itself take the event.

What exactly are the Fibonacci numbers?

First, a little background as to why they are the so-called

Leonardo Fibonacci (c1170-120) was an Italian mathematician who, in his Childhood had developed a strong understanding of the Hindu-Arabic number system.

After extensive research he published a seminal work in the calculation of the book, called the Liber Abacci, introduced the concept of the number series in the West.

Over time these number series became known Fibonacci numbers.

Look at these numbers:

0 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 610 987 1597 "

How can we get this order?

Just take the left and add two numbers together, so we have: 0 + 1 = 1

Then, add the number of the previous number to refine the calculation, so we have:

1 + 1 = 2, here is the new number 2, and we can add the preceding number, 1 to 2. And 13 + 21 = 34.

Take the example of 377. 377 and its previous 233-number is the same as the 610.

Now, if we do not take any number of the order of the number and share of the previous, and same for the next number from the results we get, 1.618 and 0.618 accordingly.

For example, taking 55, we have 55/34 = 1.618 and 55/89 = 0.618.

This ratio is called the Divine proportion or Golden mean, and it is important, because it is a mathematical truth, the whole of time and space that holds.

Now, instead of taking the number on each side of the selected number, for example, 34, 89, 55, we are linked to the next but one number.

So we say we are on the take for 233, 610 and share 89 and 89, 233 gives 0.382, when dividing by the 233 610 shall again 0.382.

And now to take these two numbers calculated above: 0.618 + 0.382 = 1

If we repeat this process at the moment, but we will choose the next but, for example, 2-89, we Select 21 and 377 then we 89/377 = 0.236.

And if we take away from this number, 1-1: 0.236 = 0.764

You can see what we are building here?

It is the set of delimiters used in the 0 to 1 in the series derived from the Fibonacci.

The fifth number is between 0 and 1, which is 0.5, the half-point, and so we are now the size of the Fibonacci numbers, the set appears in most of the e-commerce software platforms, or who at least can be added to the trader if they so wish, in the drop-down menu at the top of the asset.

Five numbers are: 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.764

So here we have a tendency to lines that accurately, traders in view of the asset that the show had the support or resistance in the form of rows and on the basis of, for example, an asset that has been trading between the two levels of these will remain in a FIB.

Other tools and techniques available to the seller of the asset are indicators, such as the moving average, Japanese candle feet, support and resistance, and the relative strength index.

Using Fibonacci trading of the asset is only part of the answer to help you make sense of market movements and should be used as part of a comprehensive asset trading system to make the correct decisions.

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Commodity Futures orders
Raw material trading leverage effect
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Technical analysis for trading commodities
Commodity trading system
Currency and commodity trading on proxy servers
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Learning to trade in commodities

Return to trading today on the Fibonacci trading an asset from the asset

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We must promote Commodity trading today articles

Welcome to the homepage, raw material trading today, which we hope you can find informative and useful, which is the commodities of interest to you.

Such important determinants of our use of the basic products in the world economy in recent years captured the attention of more and more people.

Click here to contribute to the article

Mainstream media to focus attention now for future generations of global funds are depleting the supply of crude oil and the emerging nations such as China and India, the reason for the increase in demand will cause challenges inevitably.

Whether it is of copper and iron ore is used for new infrastructure, unleaded petrol passenger cars millions or more drive, rice, and soybeans to feed a growing world population, continue to focus on trading the asset increases.

We have decided to invite some of the article writers to work regularly on the site, and we also invite other people to submit articles to this wide universe of assets.

Meet our current participants:

William Davies is a former researcher who has worked for major international oil company, and now contributes to the development of the market of raw materials for the articles today. He writes in the area of crude oil and natural gas and other hydrocarbons derived from the assets.

Elena morozova is a graduate engineer with experience in mining sector Khazakhstan. Now he writes today in the Commerce asset as a precious and base metals in the development of global commodities within the universe.

Marianna gomes has studied Agricultural Science and agricultural background of her native Argentina. He is interested in agriculture and the soft commodities, current trends and the type of the asset by the trading today.

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Raw Talent issues white paper on the wall of the LLC, the Street Conundrum of s raw materials

NEW YORK, NY-January 2009

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the prices of the raw materials listed on the directory

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Investing in gold, Hedge against inflation

Why does the idea of gold investing look can be a good strategy for the growing number of people who may never thought about the actual exposure to commodities or resources?

We know in the yellow metal has had a special allure, but what exactly are the reasons for investing in gold is considered to be a good way to allocate some of the fixed assets?

After all, you can t run the Gold bullion bar around in your pocket and if you can provide some gold coins, when a new car pays the mortgage, or some of the trade should throw the sales assistant in the confusion.

Get the free INO trading alerts when you subscribe to the free newsletter of the asset in this Universe. Fill out the simple form below. Is as easy as 1-2-3!

Gold is not ideal, as normal everyday payment and taking into account the fact that it is stored in the 400 Troy ounce bullion bars, it does not appear in the first practice of the investment.

But let s see why gold is the other asset classes to make profits, and investors in the capital and wealth will look to the interests of the operators.

The economic and geopolitical uncertainties, the periods

Throughout history people have turned to precious metals as gold and silver, because it is difficult to work with them to paper currencies can be dealt with in the same way.

When you think of investing in Gold bullion let s say you make it to keep your assets and preserve the purchasing power of their own, when we, in exceptional and uncertain world events.

The price of gold rose sharply in January 1980, just after the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, and how it can affect the resources and the global economic uncertainty.

Gold is seen in the insurance policy, it is generally accepted and there is no such thing as a counter party risk.

Hedge against inflation

See how the US Federal Reserve has been forced to pump billions more dollars to the financial system for the paper to US one after another, the Bank was on the edge of collapse.

Indeed, Stearns was allowed to go to in your partner's company that corresponds to the wall on the gold price hit its $ 1,011 continuously high Troy ounce in March 2008.

Just think that every minute of every day, the u.s. Government is spending more than $ 16, 000 more than it receives back tax revenue.

And this is before the latest economic turmoil and a huge package proposed by President Obama, Congress selected seeking approval for the automotive industry in the United States with billions of targeted.

As a result of the gold will be reviewed in the light of the protection of individuals with regard to the long term than its supply is relatively limited and finite, since it has to be mined, inflation, which is the most important metal.

Contrast this book money, such as the US dollar, the central banks can easily expand the pool of money.

Studies, which go back as far as the 18th century Show that the purchasing power of the best in the long term by investing in gold is preserved. Considering that this long period of time, a 1% growth in us prices, led to an increase in the share database for 1 US dollar price of gold.

Hedging reserves, the US dollar against the

Many of the operators and investors see How gold can be used in conjunction with other commodities as a hedge against the US dollar weakness.

And all the different categories of raw materials, gold is the best, taking into account the fact that it is the correlation coefficient,-0.4-0.6.

1 the larger the asset moves in the opposite direction of the reference even though + 1 means that it is moving very much closer to the reference to the asset.

The low volatility of gold, of raw materials

See how the volatile commodities research may, can be found on the gold was at least volatile, the value is 15% of the mean value at the same time, the base metals, zinc, nickel and lead, and the crude oil was extremely volatile, that is around 35%.

In the long term is less variable than the broad Portfolio of international replaceable.

The relatively low volatility of gold in one of the reasons is that the good geographical distribution of the funds, as compared to the total cost of production and of other commodities such as petroleum, which focuses on the Middle East.

This method is less prone to the occasional geopolitical tensions caused by the price of running spikes.

The diversification of the portfolio tool

Increasingly in recent years, pension funds and investment funds have been added to the goods and, in particular, to improve the diversification of their portfolios of contracts to an accepting gold.

This strategic decision to invest in gold has been, since the price of the metal to substantially move either positively or negatively, compared to the main asset classes.

Portfolio managers can improve the rate at diversified, including even a small percentage of gold, that is to say, between 2-4% of total assets. Other related articles:

Gold exchange traded fund, exposure to liquid gold

The gold supply, mining, primary source

Backwardation of gold
Commodity traders and investors to consider gaining exposure to gold in various ways. They could use the paper route, which includes the gold futures or certificates or the use of the Fund may be able to change the listed (or ETF), which is owned by someone else.

Alternatively, they could choose to invest in the shares of gold mining, physical gold (including coins and bars), commercial banks or private bullion bullion custodian services.

If you are thinking that is associated with the reinforced at the merits of gold, and whichever route you choose, we recommend the Pro's advice and review the decision to the economic and personal tax penalties.

One thing is sure, however, given the profound changes in the world economy, more people now are looking for gold to retain the merits of investing in the capital.

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Currency and commodity trading, commodity trading in currencies

When we exchange and trade of raw materials in countries where the share of their production and export of commodities, such as raw materials such as copper, oil and precious metals and agricultural products such as wheat, Soybeans, or tree of the currencies concerned.

Clearly, in many countries around the world, could be called commodity currencies currencies in a very broad definition.

-Exchange and raw materials for trade purposes, the concept is related to the three main countries, which should make a significant contribution to the export of commodities from.

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The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar are all movements in the price of the goods in such a way as to affect the global changes in the price of gold is reflected in the strong Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, even if you have a strong relationship with the price of crude oil.

In the meantime, the New Zealand dollar (or Kiwi) but do not relate, in particular for raw materials, as the other two currency displays the general correlation of their raw materials research Bureau (CRB) index.

So what happens when the gold price? We see a similar increase in the AUD/USD pair (Aussie), Australian dollar, such as all currencies trade in pairs. This means that the Australian dollar increases against the dollar, instead of the US dollar is the industrial production of the pair.

When economic uncertainty, investors such as the rise in inflation or recession, they can transfer the gold to its safe haven status of the affection.

Foreign Exchange and commodity traders will also link to the yellow metal s trading, as the case may be, this Aussie pair of gold-the proxy server.

Commodities contributes significantly to the GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) of Australia s: N, and more than 50% of exports, and gold and other precious metals.

Trading charts show gold very positive correlation with the Aussie, which means you can either go to the trader for trading, gold futures on the market or on-the-spot forex, or track the ETF market AUD/USD pair.

The followers of the currency and commodity trading know that Canada is the major commodities, producing one of the nation and the world s largest in particular crude oil producers.

Therefore, it is quite a strong negative correlation between USD/CAD pair (Loonie), and the crude oil price movements.

In the United States of America and Canada is oil, which is the key asset of the world s largest consumer, the largest supplier. As high oil prices are good for the Canadian dollar, but the negative of the United States and the United States dollar.

Traders to move to the long Canadian dollar forex market, the price of crude oil, a bullish day on them as an alternative to the trading of Nymex crude oil futures, or ETF.

A search at all three of these currency pairs to provide foreign exchange and trade of raw materials, the actual choice of spot forex trading-as a means of capturing market either commodity shipments of gold, the full spectrum of crude oil or commodities for the whole of the descendants.

Currency trading is always a bull market, it depends on just where the currency pair you are long or short.

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The Oil Sands of Canada are a good investment right now?

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With oil humming north of $100 once again, and crude reserves being depleted faster than ever in the Middle East, should investors once again turn their eyes towards the massive reserves sitting in the Canadian Oil Sands?  Energy guru Marin Katusa explores...


Oil Sands: Fueling the Future

By Marin Katusa, Casey Energy Opportunities

For many years, trying to tap an oil sands deposit accomplished about as much as sipping molasses through a straw, but that is changing. So do oil sands companies make a good investment now?

Humans and bacteria share a surprising number of features, not least in what they consider good food. In general, the smaller and simpler the molecule, the easier it is to digest. So, about 50 million years ago, when and where bacteria had a chance to chow down on some of the rich hydrocarbons we call oil, one might expect them to start on the smaller, tidier mouthfuls, and indeed they did.

What’s left today of these bacterial banquets are deposits of oil molecules so big and cumbersome that they flow like molasses in winter, if at all. At the extreme end is bitumen, which looks rather like sticky asphalt:

The oil sands that contain this heavy oil and bitumen have long posed an intriguing “what-if” for the industry. heir potential is staggering. One of the world’s largest deposits, in the Canadian province of Alberta, spreads over the size of Wisconsin and may hold two trillion barrels of oil – eight times the reserves of Saudi Arabia.

For just about as long, however, oil sands have been minor players at best in the world’s energy picture. The very qualities that native peoples have exploited to seal their boats make these heavy oils and bitumen tough to suck out of the ground and shove down a pipeline. And that’s before they even get to a refinery.

Two developments in recent years have brought oil sands in from the cold: rising oil prices and new technology to pry bitumen out of deposits and make it run, not walk, to the nearest processing facility.

So let’s take a look at how oil sands came about and what we can do with them.

The Tale of Two Oil Deposits

We’re back to millions of years ago, this time to the hundreds of millions, when algae and the simple organisms that fed on them died, drifted down to the seafloor, and were gradually buried under sediments and subsequent generations of ancient life.

As the ages passed, the pressure of layers above and heat from inside the earth broke down and reassembled these simple plants and animals into chains of carbon atoms bristling with hydrogen. Under pressure, these hydrocarbons squeezed through grainy, porous sedimentary rock until blocked by nonporous rock, known as capstone. There accumulated the first of our tale, a deposit of what we now call conventional oil.

The other deposit was in for a second ride. Geological forces lifted these oil-bearing rocks up toward the surface of the earth, within reach of water and bacteria. You know what happened next.

Because of this additional history, oil sands differ in structure as well as content from conventional oil deposits. The bitumen coats the grains of sand like a film and is in turn surrounded by water. Scraping the bitumen off the grains is the first step in extraction.

The uplifting also means that oil sands deposits are relatively shallow: some can even be surface-mined like coal.

This geological process happened in places like Venezuela and the United States, and particularly in Canada. In the province of Alberta are three major oil sands areas: the Athabasca (the largest), Peace River, and Cold Lake. Current estimates put the combined bitumen in these deposits at 1.7 trillion barrels, and some geologists believe more field work will jack that number up a fair bit further.

The catch is that, at present, only 10% or 170 billion barrels of that bitumen is considered economically recoverable, that is, worth a producer’s considerable effort to bring it to market. Even so, 170 billion barrels places Alberta second only to Saudi Arabia in terms of proven oil reserves, and ever-developing technology is likely to bring more in reach.

We’re going to focus on Alberta because it’s home to the largest and most developed oil sands deposits in the world.

To Market, to Market: Step 1

Surface mining operations dig up and crush the oil-soaked rock, then mix it with water heated to 50-80°C. In such conditions, the bitumen floats off. All told, bitumen recovery from strip mines approaches 90%, and the mining and processing costs come in at about US$8.00 per barrel.

However, only about 20% of Alberta’s bitumen is shallow enough for surface mining. The remaining 80% requires drilling and in-situ methods that extract the oil from the rocks in place. There are several methods to do this, and more in development. What they generally have in common is pumping down steam to heat the trapped oil, making it less viscous. Then a producer can actually pump the bitumen to the surface.

Many oil sands companies use this in-situ method, called steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD).

Another factor in-situ methods have in common is the large amounts of energy required to generate the steam. At present that energy usually comes from natural gas, which comprises 65-80% of total operating costs.

According to government statistics, Alberta is host to 91 producing oil sands projects as of 2009. Of these, only four are mining projects, while the remaining 87 use various in-situ recovery methods. In 2009 those projects produced an average of 1.49 million barrels of bitumen per day (bbpd), which represents more than 40% of Canada’s total oil production. That 1.49-million figure is projected to reach 3 million bbpd by 2018.

To Market, to Market: Step 2

However it’s recovered, this stiff black glop needs further work in order to sell it. An oil sands producer has two choices: to upgrade it and make synthetic oil, or to dilute it with lighter hydrocarbons so it can run down a pipeline to a refinery.

Upgrading usually requires two steps. First the bulky hydrocarbon chains are broken into smaller ones in a process called hydrocracking; upgraders may also remove carbon to produce the smaller chains along with coke. The second step adds hydrogen to “fill out” the new carbon chains and to remove impurities like sulfur. Currently five upgraders in Alberta churn out a bit over 1 million barrels of synthetic crude oil each day, and there are plans for more.

Bitumen that’s not upgraded is blended with diluents that make it runny enough to pipe to refineries throughout North America. The diluents are usually a mixture of light hydrocarbons, such as light crude oil and naphtha. Companies can recycle diluents that stay within Alberta, a significant consideration in project planning.

The investment to get the industry to this stage has been massive. Between 1999 and 2009, an estimated $91 billion was pumped into developing Alberta’s oil sands. In 2009 industry invested another $10 billion, and almost $170 billion worth of oil sands projects are currently underway or proposed in the province.

Environmental Issues

Environmental groups have labeled bitumen “dirty oil” and are calling for an end to oil sands operations. They have three main complaints: that ugly mines and tailings ponds destroy habitat, that projects gulp energy and emit significant emissions for every barrel of oil, and that the whole process uses a significant amount of water.

The groups are certainly right on some fronts. In-situ operations cause minimal disturbance, but surface mining – even though it represents only 20% of oil sands operations – does make an unsightly mess of boreal forests and marshlands. And in-situ projects have their own issues. The roughly 30 cubic meters of natural gas and three barrels of water consumed to produce one barrel of bitumen are indeed high.

Well, oil sands aren’t going away. Their potential is too vast, global demands for energy too high, and for governments like Alberta, they contribute too much to the coffers.

But more encouraging yet, industry is developing less intensive techniques. Quick-drying tailings ponds can be returned to nature faster, for example. And companies have a double incentive to develop in-situ methods that require less energy and water: they would lower operating costs as well as mitigate complaints.

[One of the current picks of the Casey Energy team is a company that’s proving up an extraction method that’s both more efficient and easier on the environment… a future winner if we’ve ever seen one. Sign up now to receive Casey’s Energy Opportunities for only $39 per year – and find out all about this low-risk value play in oil sands.]

Ed. note: I am a subscriber and affiliate of Casey Energy Opportunities.

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